双语 | 博鳌年报:2019,E11发展知多少

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  博鳌亚洲论坛3月26日发布的《新兴经济体发展2019年度报告》显示,2019年E11经济仍将保持中高速增长,是推动世界经济增长不容忽视的重要力量。

  The E11 economy is expected to maintain mid- and high-rate growth and remains an indispensable driving force for global economic expansion, according to the Development of Emerging Economies Annual Report 2019 issued by the Boao Forum for Asia on March 26.

  E11,即新兴11国,是指二十国集团(G20)中的11个新兴经济体:阿根廷、巴西、中国、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、墨西哥、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯、南非和土耳其。博鳌亚洲论坛自2010年开始组织编写和发布新兴经济体发展年度报告,2010年发布的《新兴经济体发展2009年度报告》首次定义了“E11”的概念。

  E11 refers to the 11 major emerging-market economies in the Group of 20, namely, Argentina, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China, India, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey.The forum has started to organize the compilation of the annual development report for the emerging-market economies since 2010. In 2010, the forum for the first time defined the term E11 in its annual development report.

  根据IMF 1月发布的预测数据测算,2019—2023年E11的GDP增长率平均保持在5%以上。具体分国别来看,预计2019年中国的GDP增长率为6.2%,印度GDP增长率约为7.5%,印度尼西亚约为5.1%,韩国约为2.6%,巴西约为2.5%,墨西哥约为2.1%,沙特阿拉伯约为1.8%,俄罗斯约为1.6%,南非约为1.4%,土耳其约为0.4%,阿根廷约为-1.6%。

  According to IMF forecasts in January 2019, the GDP growth of the E11 may be kept above 5 percent during the 2019-23 period. China’s GDP growth is expected to slide to 6.2 percent in 2019. The growth of India, Indonesia, the ROK, Brazil, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Russia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina is projected at approximately 7.5 percent, 5.1 percent, 2.6 percent, 2.5 percent, 2.1 percent, 1.8 percent, 1.6 percent, 1.4 percent, 0.4 percent and minus 1.6 percent respectively.

  报告认为,2019年E11面临着诸多风险与挑战。例如逆全球化特别是贸易投资保护主义盛行,中美贸易关系的走向存在不确定性,美国经济下行的可能性较大,发达经济体的宏观政策调整带来溢出效应,金融市场可能进一步出现剧烈动荡,债务特别是私人部门债务累积的风险犹存,地缘政治风险、民粹主义抬头等,这些不利因素将给E11未来的经济增长带来负面影响。2019 年世界经济增速下行的可能性较大,这种情形必将波及 E11 的经济表现。

  In 2019, the E11 economies also face multiple risks and challenges, such as the anti-globalization tide,especially trade and investment protectionism, uncertainties regarding the evolution of the China-U.S. trade disputes, the possibility of the U.S. economy starting to weaken, the spillover effect of the macroeconomic policy adjustments by the developed countries, possibility of further drastic fluctuations in the financial markets, risks caused by accumulation of debts, especially in the private sector, geopolitical risks, and populism. Those unfavorable factors will bring negative impacts on the future economic growth of the E11. The possibility is high that growth of the world economy may trend down in 2019,which will spill over to affect the economic performance of the E11.

  但从影响E11经济增长的因素来看,有利的因素也很多,比如主要新兴经济体国内结构性调整和深化改革的红利持续释放等。

  Nevertheless, there are many favorable factors.They include the continual unfolding of dividends of the economic restructuring and deepening reforms in emerging-market economies.

  在保护主义盛行、美国经济增速可能放缓、中美贸易关系充满不确定性以及欧日经济动力不足而现疲态的大背景下,全球经济增长预期下调,新兴市场波动加剧,中国面临的外需环境会进一步恶化。但中国有新阶段的供给侧结构性改革、“六稳”政策的出台和落实以及新一轮改革开放高潮的掀起等有利因素,市场信心将会得到有效逆转。

  Givenrisingprotectionism, possible easing of growth in the U.S., uncertainties brought by China-U.S. trade relations and the fragile and slack growth of European and Japanese economies, the global economic growth is expected to slow and fluctuations in the emerging-market economies would intensify, which will further worsen the external environment China faces. But considering the new-phase supply-side structural reform, China’s efforts to stabilize employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, fixed-asset investment and expectations and the new round of reform and opening up, market confidence will be effectively restored.

  编译:张莎莎

  责任编辑:闫威

  设计排版:关山度

特别声明:本文为网易自媒体平台“网易号”作者上传并发布,仅代表该作者观点。网易仅提供信息发布平台。

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