网易首页 > 网易号 > 正文 申请入驻

贝莱德研究主管:美联储货币政策转变会有哪些潜在影响?

0
分享至

美联储正在考虑改变其货币政策框架。贝莱德投资研究所经济与市场研究主管Elga Bartsch撰文,评估了这种改变对市场和经济的潜在影响。

图片|视觉中国

美联储正在考虑将其货币政策框架从灵活的通胀预测目标转变为几种补偿策略中的一个。

The Federal Reserve is considering a changing its monetary policy framework from flexible inflation forecast targeting to one of several strategies known as make-up strategies.

这对市场和经济可能意味着什么?在这篇文章中我深入探讨了潜在影响,本文是美联储潜在转变的一系列博客文章中的最后一篇。

What does this potentially mean for markets and the economy? I delve into the potential impact in this post, the final in a series of blog posts on the Fed’s potential shift.

在比较美联储当前货币政策体系的有效性与正在考虑的补充策略替代方案(包括平均通胀目标(AIT)和价格水平目标(PLT))的潜力时,出现了几个共同的主题。美联储和中央银行界以外的学者对此进行了广泛的研究。数千个模型结果可以概括为四个补偿策略的主要特征。

A few common themes emerge when comparing the efficacy of the Fed’s current monetary policy system with the potential of the make-up strategy alternatives under consideration, including average inflation targeting (AIT) and price level targeting (PLT). Extensive studies on this topic have been done by the Fed and academics outside of the central banking world. Thousands of model outcomes can be summarized into four main features of make-up strategies.

1. 经济在衰退后更迅速地恢复到平稳状态(在稳定状态下,通胀率达到目标,并且产出缺口缩小)。

2. 利率可能会长期保持在较低水平。如果美联储在全球金融危机后采取了一系列补偿策略中的任何一种,它可能不会从危机后的低点开始加息,即使至今为止。

3. 宏观经济波动可能会减少。

4. 资产泡沫可能会变得更加普遍——除非在补偿策略运作时收紧宏观审慎规则。

1. The economy returns more quickly to a steady state (where inflation is at target and the output gap is closed) after a downturn.

2. Interest rates would likely stay lower for longer. If the Fed had adopted any one of a number of make-up strategies after the global financial crisis, it would probably not have started to raise rates from post-crisis lows – even by now.

3. Macroeconomic volatility could decrease.

4. Asset bubbles could become more common – unless macro prudential rules are tightened when make-up strategies are in place.

有关金融市场如何应对三种潜在情况的更详细信息,请参阅下表。

See the table below for a more detailed look at how financial markets could respond to three potential scenarios.

如果实施一项新的策略,当前美国的货币扩张可能需要数年的时间。这是因为考虑补偿策略的意愿表明,长期利率较低,因此偏向于更宽松而不是更紧缩的货币政策,而且政策失误导致扩张周期缩短的可能性较低。但是,由于金融脆弱性很可能会更快地积聚起来,因此需要密切监控经济复苏的其他潜在风险。

The current U.S. expansion could have years more to run if a new strategy were implemented. This is because the willingness to consider make-up strategies suggests lower-for longer interest rates and therefore a bias toward easier rather than tighter monetary policy – and a lower chance that a policy mistake could cut short the expansion. But other potential risks to the recovery would need be monitored closely because financial vulnerabilities would likely build up faster.

如果美联储决定实施补偿策略,我们相信,未来出现极端宏观结果的可能性或会降低,特别是由于缺乏货币政策火力,经济衰退进一步恶化为全面萧条的情况。这是因为利率下限可能不会经常成为限制因素。我们认为,全面通货紧缩的风险也会下降。这些负面事件发生的可能性越低,加之长期利率的降低和长期通胀预期的提高,可能支持风险资产。

If the Fed decides that a make-up strategy should be implemented, we believe that the future chance of extreme macro outcomes – especially a recession deepening into a full-blown depression because of a lack of monetary policy firepower – may be reduced. This is because the interest-rate floor may not become a limiting factor as often. The risk of full-blown deflation would also decline, in our view. The lower chance of these negative events – combined with lower-for-longer interest rates and higher long-term inflation expectations – would likely support risk assets.

以历史标准衡量,目前较低的波动性,也可能发生变化。在可依赖的补偿策略下,中期宏观经济波动可能会下降。在市场消化美联储任何新的通胀策略的同时,短期内波动率也可能上升。将需要有效的美联储沟通来管理这一转变。

Volatility – currently low by historical standards – could also change. Medium-term macroeconomic volatility would likely decline under credible make-up strategies. Volatility could also rise in the short term while the market digests any new Fed inflation strategy. Effective Fed communication would be needed to manage this transition.

但在现实中,任何实际的AIT的实施(或其他补偿策略)都可能被稀释。正如美联储的Richard Clariada今年5月所说,“我们的审查更有可能在我们实施货币政策的方式上产生进化,而不是革命。”越多的央行官员说不会有大变化,其可能产生的影响就越小。

But in reality, any actual implementation of AIT (or other make-up strategies) is likely to be diluted. As the Fed’s Richard Clarida said in May this year, “our review is more likely to produce evolution, not a revolution, in the way we conduct monetary policy.” The more central bankers say there won’t be a big change, the lesser the likely impact.

政策制定者可能只会在下一次经济衰退期间引入新的战略。他们也可能对金融过热以及由此带来的金融稳定风险持谨慎态度。重要的是,AIT依赖于对通胀预期的成功操纵,而在经济复苏期间,央行官员们一直未能有效地做到这一点。正在被提出的一些弥补策略,例如“临时”或“目标”PLT,可能会遇到与中央银行预先给出特定政策承诺相关的时间不一致问题。最后必须考虑的是:如果在没有具体说明将采取哪些措施来引起通胀超调的情况下实施AIT,政策效果将受到损害。

Policymakers may only introduce a new strategy during the next downturn. They may also be wary of financial overheating and the resulting risks to financial stability. Importantly, AIT depends on the successful manipulation of inflation expectations, something central bankers have been unable to effectively do during this economic recovery. Some of the make-up strategies being proposed – such as “temporary” or “targeted” PLT – could suffer from time inconsistency issues relating to the challenge of central banks to pre-commit to a specific policy promise. A final consideration: AIT would be undermined if it were implemented without specifying the steps that would be taken to bring about inflation overshoots.

我们的底线|Our bottom line

美联储货币政策手册变化的实际影响可能只是AIT和其他补偿策略在书面上承诺的影子——除非该策略的变化伴随着通胀目标本身的上调。

The actual impact of a change in the Fed’s monetary policy playbook may only be a shadow of what AIT and other make-up strategies promise on paper – unless the change in the strategy comes with an upward adjustment to the inflation target itself.

注:Elga Bartsch博士为贝莱德投资研究所经济与市场研究主管。

Elga Bartsch, PhD, Head of Economic and Markets Research for the BlackRock Investment Institute, is a regular contributor to The Blog.

特别声明:以上内容(如有图片或视频亦包括在内)为自媒体平台“网易号”用户上传并发布,本平台仅提供信息存储服务。

Notice: The content above (including the pictures and videos if any) is uploaded and posted by a user of NetEase Hao, which is a social media platform and only provides information storage services.

相关推荐
热点推荐
俄罗斯的一枚导弹,让波兰丢尽了脸面!

俄罗斯的一枚导弹,让波兰丢尽了脸面!

老李聊军事
2024-03-27 20:43:01
国家一级演员,当了院长比西门庆玩的还花,潜规则女演员、画家

国家一级演员,当了院长比西门庆玩的还花,潜规则女演员、画家

叙说
2023-10-01 10:00:03
马莱莱能上?申花烟雾弹!中超榜首战,泰山倒吸冷气,黄健翔发声

马莱莱能上?申花烟雾弹!中超榜首战,泰山倒吸冷气,黄健翔发声

话体坛
2024-03-28 11:48:27
香港丈夫灭门案:整座楼无人敢住,为何会有如此可怕后遗症?

香港丈夫灭门案:整座楼无人敢住,为何会有如此可怕后遗症?

一个人讲故事
2024-02-27 10:38:13
李鹏的这张照片难得一见!而他为黄冈中学题字亦如此,堪称经典

李鹏的这张照片难得一见!而他为黄冈中学题字亦如此,堪称经典

农人老寓
2024-03-26 10:12:44
意外!雷佳音开20万车外出引热议!被赞接地气,还亲自送签名照!

意外!雷佳音开20万车外出引热议!被赞接地气,还亲自送签名照!

八卦爱侃娱
2024-03-27 11:28:30
邯郸被害男孩后续,专家解读量刑,可能会明显低于大部分人的认知

邯郸被害男孩后续,专家解读量刑,可能会明显低于大部分人的认知

娱乐圈见解说
2024-03-28 22:09:16
网传上海将出台楼市新政,多方回应称“未接到通知”

网传上海将出台楼市新政,多方回应称“未接到通知”

蓝鲸财经
2024-03-28 18:12:43
后续来了!18岁女孩被生父强奸猥亵:继母发声,生父被逮捕

后续来了!18岁女孩被生父强奸猥亵:继母发声,生父被逮捕

暖心的小屋
2024-03-28 21:27:13
美主持人问了大家想问不敢问的问题,白宫“震怒”

美主持人问了大家想问不敢问的问题,白宫“震怒”

观察者网
2024-03-28 19:57:13
女子穿包臀裙深夜等车,因太通透冻得发抖,什么场合得穿成这样?

女子穿包臀裙深夜等车,因太通透冻得发抖,什么场合得穿成这样?

世态言凉
2024-03-07 10:18:18
退还美国国籍,不惧美威逼利诱毅然回国,全美冠军:我只为中国战

退还美国国籍,不惧美威逼利诱毅然回国,全美冠军:我只为中国战

大佬日志
2024-03-27 08:00:16
京粤大战10年,首钢只有曾凡博一个新人,宏远只剩任骏飞一个老将

京粤大战10年,首钢只有曾凡博一个新人,宏远只剩任骏飞一个老将

后仰大风车
2024-03-28 12:25:06
他官至副国级,受审时放狠话:谁敢判我死刑!入狱后不久患癌病逝

他官至副国级,受审时放狠话:谁敢判我死刑!入狱后不久患癌病逝

诗意世界
2024-03-20 10:15:03
大S放生汪小菲!于美人看不下去说重话 点破「花路」含意

大S放生汪小菲!于美人看不下去说重话 点破「花路」含意

娱乐圈酸柠檬
2024-03-27 07:44:33
总局收视排行:《追风者》《与凤行》断层差距,第一名堪称剧王

总局收视排行:《追风者》《与凤行》断层差距,第一名堪称剧王

娱乐圈十三太保
2024-03-27 14:01:28
曝42岁李晨上海遛娃!推简易婴儿车太低调,女儿五官清秀超像爸

曝42岁李晨上海遛娃!推简易婴儿车太低调,女儿五官清秀超像爸

阿桥侃娱乐
2024-03-27 16:09:14
一人毁了整部剧!当硅胶脸混进《与凤行》,这次连赵丽颖都救不了

一人毁了整部剧!当硅胶脸混进《与凤行》,这次连赵丽颖都救不了

舞娱天地
2024-03-27 17:06:23
泰国归化国脚:对阵中国和新加坡,我们希望拿到6分

泰国归化国脚:对阵中国和新加坡,我们希望拿到6分

懂球帝
2024-03-28 11:31:14
认怂了!旅行团37人被扣后续:调查结果公布,整个公司被牵连

认怂了!旅行团37人被扣后续:调查结果公布,整个公司被牵连

小兔子爱旅游
2024-03-28 22:22:49
2024-03-28 23:18:44
小邓爱说事
小邓爱说事
小邓爱说事,说真事
1085文章数 406关注度
往期回顾 全部

财经要闻

中国版QE要来?国内外机构观点罕见一致

头条要闻

新西兰称中国需尊重该国加入"奥库斯"权利 外交部回应

头条要闻

新西兰称中国需尊重该国加入"奥库斯"权利 外交部回应

体育要闻

疯狂的格林,冲刺的火箭

娱乐要闻

莱昂纳多与25岁新女友互相投喂超恩爱

科技要闻

小米SU7起价21.59万元,顶配版29.99万元

汽车要闻

混动增程双模式 长安UNI-Z售11.79万起

态度原创

健康
艺术
数码
教育
军事航空

早防早筛,远离肝硬化

艺术要闻

艺术开卷|从闺阁、庭院到郊野,古画中的女性生活空间

数码要闻

小米汽车 SU7 海量配件发布,支持苹果 iPad 上车

教育要闻

初中数学:代数式的值怎么求?用完全平方公式很容易,一定要学会

军事要闻

乌方声称击落两枚俄"锆石"高超音速导弹 俄方未予回应

无障碍浏览 进入关怀版